Sep
10
Postmortem of a World Cup Postmortem

I was kindly advised of an flaw in my original World Cup postmortem. So it's time to put the rubber gloves back on and disect the postmortem itself.

Jul
10
World Cup Postmortem

The group stage is over and the results are in: VividNumeral's forecasts beat FiveThirtyEight's. But I suggest you read more before trolling Nate Silver's Twitter account.

Jun
10
World Cup Showdown: VividNumeral vs FiveThirtyEight

A classic battle in the mold of David vs Goliath. If David and Goliath each made quantitative predictions about a soccer tournament. And if Goliath's model was WAY better. And if Goliath didn't even realize David was competing.

Jun
08
2014 GROUP OF DEATH

Every World Cup has a Group of Death. This time it's Group G & the US is in it. How deadly is Group G and how screwed is the US? Here are some data driven answers, including my model's probability for each team surviving the group stage.

Apr
27
Visualizing 64 Years of DVOA History

FootballOutsiders.com's DVOA is my favorite football statistic. This interactive chart visualizes 64 years of DVOA History. A chart's only as good as the data in it, and Football Outsiders, Andreas Shephard, and Football Perspective deserve the credit for that.

Apr
18
2013 Fantasy Football Postmortem

With this season past and in the morgue, I'm going to perform a postmortem: slice up 2013's fantasy football results and find out whether building a drafting system was worth the trouble.

Mar
18
NCAA 2014 MatchUp

NCAA 2014 Interactive Match Up Viewer

Nov
02
NFL Dynasties

An introduction to a statistical measure of the greatness (and awfulness) of NFL franchises and what it says about your favorite team.

Sep
05
DIY Fantasy Football Strategy

This Do It Yourself Guide to Fantasy Football Draft Strategy lays out a softly statistical approach to building fantasy football rankings that anyone with Excel (or a calcualtor and a lot of paper) can replicate.

Sep
02
Fantasy Slopegraph

I used the slopegraph on this page as my fantasy football draft board. The line drawn from each player's ESPN Average Draft Position (ADP) on the left to his rank on the right highlights players that are being drafted too early or too late according to my rankings.